My Biggest Misses
Learning and improving, part 1
I started this Substack last January, which means I’ve had one off season to put together a body of work, and one season to test that body of work against.
First, I want to thank you all for your support along the way. I started writing simply as a way to get some of the thoughts in my head down on paper. I always told myself even if only one other person reads what I write, it’s worth it. I’ve learned significantly more from organizing my thoughts and researching to ensure I had well informed content than I imagined was possible. I believe fantasy football is an iterative process — we decide on an approach that we think will be successful, we watch the games play out, we learn and we (hopefully) improve.
Now that the book has closed on the 2024 fantasy season, we have an opportunity to do just that. It’s time to step to the next iteration.
I’ve mentioned several times my goal here is not to regurgitate the mainstream fantasy content — start/sit decisions, waiver targets, sleepers, and so on. I want to understand the game we play at a more theoretical level, understanding the deeper trends that form the decisions we make and studying if that’s really the best way to play the game or is it groupthink we’ve all just accepted.
I say all this because looking back, the posts I’ve shared are more loosely formed strategies than specific takes like “Breece Hall will fail to live up to expectations this year because reason x,y,z.”
I did share some thoughts on individual players, though, and as we shift into the core of this piece, I’ll include all of that. I’ve read back through all 20 posts I’ve published so far and picked out the advice I shared so we can analyze what went right and what went wrong.
The Misses
There is less risk in prioritizing WRs early vs RBs & WR production is more predictable vs ADP
From: 2023 Stats Review Series: RB & 2023 Stats Review Series: WR
This is probably my biggest miss of the year. If there is one overarching theme from the 2024 season, it’d be that hero WR was the winning strategy. In the mid-season recap, I called it The Year of Zero WR?, but really it was hero WR. The first round WRs were pretty much all successes — Ja’Marr Chase (WR1), Justin Jefferson (WR2), Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR3), and so on. Tyreek Hill was really the only disappointment from this group. The receivers we know are good continue to be good!
Meanwhile, the first round RBs were a mixed bag. McCaffrey was a big miss, Bijan finished the season strong, Breece was disappointing, Jahmyr Gibbs was a stud again. But it was the round 2-3 RBs that really impressed. Derrick Henry, De’Von Achane, Josh Jacobs, Kyren Williams, etc.
Here’s where I really missed, though — I continued to stress getting WR depth early, but outside of the first round receivers, the depth you would’ve been getting was nothing compared to the RBs in the same range. For example, these players were all back-to-back in ADP: Garrett Wilson (15.2 PPG) vs Jahmyr Gibbs (19.8), Drake London (15.0) vs De’Von Achane (17.6), Marvin Harrison Jr. (11.2) vs Kyren Williams (17.0).
YPRR is predictive for WRs
From: 2023 Stats Review Series: WR
Yards per route run, perhaps the most widely referenced stats among degenerate fantasy nerds. If you just used YPRR to determine who to target among WRs, well now I’d say you’re missing a lot of context. Which is pretty much exactly what you’d get, some hits and some misses because there’s more to the equation than can be summed up by a single number. As a newcomer to the analyst space, though, I overly relied on YPRR at times.
Here were the top-5 in 2023: Tyreek Hill, Nico Collins, Brandon Aiyuk, CeeDee Lamb, Puka Nacua. So you can say YPRR predicted Nico’s breakout, but looking at the name right next to him, Brandon Aiyuk, is the perfect counter-example. Even before his injury, he wasn’t doing much.
I do still think there is value in YPRR, but you have to dig a bit deeper. Look at other receivers on the team, do they play alongside high target earners? Do they only play slot in three-wide sets? Does the team lean run-heavy? Do they play with a mobile QB? Do they play in a good offense?
Target WRs tied to QBs with high YPA
From: 2023 Stats Review Series: WR
This is another example of me being naïve and attempting to boil things down to a simple, easy to understand, stat. First off, YPA isn’t particularly sticky. Brock Purdy led in 2023 with 8.9 YPA and dropped slightly to 8.5. Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson jumped from 8.0 YPA in 2023 to 8.9.
The rest, like CJ Stroud and Tua Tagovailoa, dropped quite dramatically. Yet, the two who maintained high YPA marks, didn’t necessarily have fantasy superstar receivers. Zay Flowers finished at WR22 with 12.9 PPG, and Deebo Samuel finished at WR41 with 10.2 PPG largely due to the Jauan Jennings breakout that I didn’t see coming. Another miss on my part.
Garrett Wilson, George Pickens, Terry McLaurin, Drake London
From: 2023 Stats Review Series: WR
Along the same lines as the point above, I noted these guys as having high target shares but bad QB play that could see an upgrade. Again, attempting to narrow things down to a particular stat is foolish. These receivers would’ve all been successful if their ADP didn’t move from where they finished 2023, but the market accounts for that sort of thing. It was obvious they were getting an improved situation.
McLaurin was the biggest hit from the bunch, but also the biggest question mark playing with a rookie QB. The others pretty much met expectation according to ADP but still underperformed the RBs in the same range.
Target rookies post round 10
From: 2023 Stats Review Series: TE
At the end of the TE post, I shared some thoughts on rookies. To be honest, this one does feel like cherry picking. Of course there are going to be hits in this range, some will be rookies, some won’t. Some of the players past round 10 included Bo Nix and Bucky Irving, but also included Blake Corum and Trey Benson.
I do still prefer targeting younger players in this range because they have more unknown which means more upside when the cost to acquire is cheap, but odds are no matter who you are picking in this range, it’s unlikely they’ll have a big impact on your team.
Instead, there are better things we can look at instead of blindly picking rookies. Bo Nix was largely a success because he ran the ball. Bucky Irving and Tyrone Tracy shared a backfield with players who were rather ineffective. Same with Brian Thomas and Ladd McConkey, the Jaguars and Chargers wide receiver rooms were wide open.
Jonathon Brooks
From: The Running Back Dead Zone
I was high on Brooks. From what I’ve read, players tend to be out for 10-11 months post ACL tears, which would’ve meant he would be ready by September at the latest. Todd Gurley was also a good comp. He tore his ACL in November of his final collegiate season, stepped into a bad situation with the Rams at the time, but was an immediate superstar. I haven’t yet decided if I’d change my process here. If anything, I’ll just be doing as much research as possible before drafting someone like Brooks. Nonetheless, it was a miss.
TEs are undervalued
From: The case for WAR
The case for WAR was essentially a technical piece to say that high-scoring WRs are more valuable than high-scoring players at any other position. That flipped in 2024 outside of Ja’Marr Chase, and RBs took the cake due to a number of factors which I’ll outline in another post.
When looking at value over replacement, I also called out TEs, suggesting you should draft one of the first 7. In 2023 there was a big drop from the top 7, which I was considering the elite cohort, down to the next tier. Yet, ADP didn’t value these guys as highly as the numbers suggested they should.
The miss was assuming 2023 would simply repeat itself without fully digging into the individual situations. And that was a big miss. A few of the big names were based on speculation, which is always risky territory. Dalton Kincaid never produced like a high-end TE, yet we assumed he would because the targets had to go somewhere. Kyle Pitts was coming off a down year, but we assumed Kirk Cousins would solve everything. Throw on top Sam LaPorta and Mark Andrews falling short of expectations and the TE position was a mess.
Zero RB draft strategy
From: Draft Strategy — Zero RB
When RBs dominate like they did in 2024, fading the position doesn’t usually end well. There were a few zero RB winners — Chase Brown, Chuba Hubbard, Bucky Irving, Tony Pollard, J.K. Dobbins, Tyrone Tracy, etc. But among those names I just listed, Chase Brown and Chuba Hubbard are the only two finish top-12 at their position.
This is another case of assuming history would repeat itself. After a successful zero RB year in 2023 due to guys like De’Von Achane, Raheem Mostert, and Kyren Williams hitting from really late draft positions, it became a hugely popular strategy.
Not only did zero RB drafters miss out on the highly productive RB1s and RB2s, but as mentioned with WRs and TEs, the players you were likely drafting instead flopped.
Hero RB draft strategy
From: Draft Strategy — Hero RB
I’ll keep this one brief based on what I just highlighted above with zero RB. When I outlined hero RB, I noted that I’d personally only go hero RB if I was able to get one of the first three options — Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, or Breece Hall.
Bijan Robinson was the only worthy hero RB torchbearer from that group. Instead, the best hero RB approach would have been going after the late round 1/round 2 options. Outside of Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry and De’Von Achane were all going in that range. In fact, you could’ve snagged two of these guys if you were picking around the turn.
Week 1 Waivers
From: The First-Read — Week 1
I disproportionally advised attacking the waiver wire after week 1. There weren’t really any eye-watering, empty-the-wallet, waiver bids at any point this year, outside of maybe Jauan Jennings who ended up with a really solid season in what was an otherwise down year for WRs. I wasn’t really fond of Jennings either when I spoke about him in the early-season trends, but to be fair to myself that was before the Aiyuk injury.
The one win I can take from this post, the streaming QBs I called out all ended up being hits, at least in the short-term. Justin Fields was a good starter before Russell Wilson took over, Baker Mayfield was a QB1 this year, and Derek Carr finished as the QB3 in week 2 after I called him out.
Early season RB production was unsustainable
From: The Year of Zero WR?
I’ll end the misses with some general thoughts on how I can improve. What I’ve realized from going through this process is that my takes tend to be purely numbers based. I don’t necessarily think that’s bad process, but it shouldn’t end there.
Digging into data can help identify some things that might otherwise be difficult to see. That should only be the starting point, though. I need to take it a step further and ask myself why.
For example, I was indifferent on Derrick Henry this season. In the offseason notes, I said I’d put him around where Gus Edwards finished in 2023, a low-end RB1/high-end RB2. Derrick Henry is objectively a better running back than Gus Edwards. Period. Henry was the RB9 in 2023 on a bad Titans offense, and he was joining one of the most valuable backfield situations in the league, but I didn’t like the fact that he doesn’t catch passes.
In The Year of Zero WR? post, I noted how at the midway point through the fantasy season there were five players sitting at a 20+ PPG average, and their underlying usage didn’t exactly back that up. This take was sort of right and wrong at the same time. It was correct because only one of those players (Saquon) maintained that level of production. However, I see it as miss because if you acted on it, you probably didn’t benefit much. Derrick Henry still finished RB4 and had two really solid weeks in the playoffs. The others though — Joe Mixon, Kenneth Walker and Alvin Kamara either missed time in the playoffs or didn’t do much to help your team in those crucial weeks.
To close out this two part series, I’ll end on a positive, recapping the wins. Then begin putting together some offseason content. I consider the RB dead zone and the offseason notes some of my best work, so you can definitely count on that again.
It’s unfortunate that the season ends when the outside looks dead and gray if you live in Michigan like I do. Personally, I spent way too much time watching football, though, so I hope we can all take some time to decompress and enjoy some of the things that fill our cup.