Breakout Candidates

A response to a comment on the opportunity score post

In the last newsletter (linked above), I discussed a new metric called opportunity score, which is just an adaptation of TRAP, a metric I was previously using to analyze running backs. On that post, Grant commented:

I’d be curious to see this metric applied to players with even slightly less volume. Are there players who just missed the cut of 150 touches who could be poised for breakouts this year? Guys who were in minority roles last season but when they did get time had high opportunity scores? Thinking about guys like De’von Achane, Ty Chandler, Zamir White, Rico Dowdle, and Jaleel McLaughlin among others all fell in the 100-150 touch range.

I want to address that question here in a dedicated post, because it gets into a really important topic that doesn’t have a simple answer.

First, let me say I love this question for a few reasons. If you’ve been reading my work up to this point, you’ll know I want to scoop up as many elite WRs as possible in the early rounds. If you go this route, that means the top guys — Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, etc. will not be attainable. And after the elite guys, the RB position is so unpredictable that I’d rather just wait.

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The Running Back Dead Zone

After those elite options have dried up, you start to get into the “Running Back Dead Zone.” Admittedly, the RB dead zone deserves it’s own dedicated post, which I’ll send out soon, but it’s not really possible to talk about breakout candidates without mentioning the dead zone.

The boundaries can be fuzzy, but the dead zone begins around the RB15 and typically lasts until the perceived starters are gone, usually around RB36, so were talking your RB2s & RB3s. What round they fall in all depends on your specific league, but typically it would be around the start of round-4 through the end of round-8.

The idea is to avoid the dead zone. Sure, every year there will be some players that emerge and finish as RB1s, and everyone remembers those guys so it’s easy to be drawn to them. Last year it was Rachaad White and Isiah Pacheco. While those two stand out, the majority of dead zone RBs were players like Miles Sanders or Alexander Mattison.

Generally, the production you get from dead zone RBs is similar to you’d get if you were to just wait and spend your middle-round picks on other positions, which why it’s a good idea to wait. In fact, last year among the top-12 RBs — 6 had RB1 ADP, 3 were dead zone backs, and 3 were picked after the dead zone.

This, in a nutshell, leads to what fantasy gamers like to call the Zero RB strategy. I’ll send out some posts later this summer discussing different draft strategies, but Zero RB is one of my favorites and this is the perfect introduction.

All that being said, accepting the risk that comes with drafting RBs in the dead zone, I think it’s possible to beat the dead zone following some simple rules:

Rule #1: Avoid older backs, target rookies and year-two players

Depending on where you draw the lines, there weren’t any rookies in the dead zone (Jahmyr Gibbs was just before and Zach Charbonnet was just after). We did have 6 year-two backs. Those were Kenneth Walker, Dameon Pierce, Rachaad White, James Cook, Isiah Pacheco and Brian Robinson. Dameon Pierce was the only one who failed to get to 13 PPG, more on him soon.

Rule #2: Target ambiguous backfields

Fantasy managers hate uncertainty. That is gives those of us who don’t an edge. Certainty isn’t what wins championships, upside is. And ambiguous backfields are a perfect place to find upside. The perfect scenario is an ambiguous backfield in an offense that’s expected to be good. Last year Isiah Pacheco’s RB29 ADP was the highest in KC’s backfield. Wait, didn’t he also meet rule #1? Pacheco then went on to score 15.3 PPG and finished as the RB13.

Rule #3: Target dead zone backs with high opportunity scores

These breakout candidates by definition had low volume. Several of them were largely used exclusively on passing-downs which inflates their opportunity score and makes it hard to compare them to players with high volume. For that reason, ideally here we want to see opportunity scores above 30.

Rule #4: Avoid incumbent perceived starters in the dead zone with rookie QBs

We had four rookie QBs who played 8 or more games (basically half of the fantasy season). Those were Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Will Levis and Aidan O’Connell. Two of these teams, the Panthers and Texans, had RBs being drafted in the dead zone — Miles Sanders and Dameon Pierce. Both of those guys finished with less than 7 PPG and massively underperformed relative to their ADP.

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Breakout Candidates

There are a few other things I need to get out of the way before getting to the list of players. First, redraft leagues haven’t really started yet so we don’t have a clear picture of ADP right now. But there have been best ball drafts on Underdog, which can get us close. So I’ll be using Underdog ADP as a proxy and as a way to sort the list of players. I’ll also list projected PPR PPG from Mike Clay as another data point to give us a little more context in addition to opportunity score.

Zach Charbonnet

De’Von Achane (ADP: RB7, Opportunity Score: 36.4, Projected PPG: 15.0)

I’d argue De’Von Achane had his breakout in 2023, but he fits the criteria of less than 150 touches and he was mentioned in the question so let’s talk about him. De’Von Achane has the ability to be a fantasy cheat code. A running back in the modern era has never averaged 8 yards/carry on at least 100 attempts. Until Achane did it. He is the closest thing we’ve ever seen to CJ2K. Remember him? De’Von Achane has me reconsidering my no early RB tendency.

Zamir White (ADP: RB21, Opportunity Score: 24.5, Projected PPG: 12.9)

I’ll be honest, before doing more research for this piece, Zamir White was looking like a really good value. I’m not saying don’t draft him, just know there are some concerns. He fits the profile of a typical dead zone back to avoid. He is in line for a lot of touches which makes him an intriguing pick, but he only meets rule #4 above. And I would never project a 6th round rookie to take over a backfield but Dylan Laube had more receiving yards than all but eight wide receivers in this class making him a candidate to take the highly valuable passing-down snaps.

Tyjae Spears (ADP: RB34, Opportunity Score: 34.5, Projected PPG: 12.3)

The Titans may not be expected to be an especially high-scoring offense, but this is still an ambiguous backfield worth investing in. He meets all the other criteria too. Tyjae Spears has got the juice. He will may never be a three-down workhorse, but his efficiency makes up for it. He finished top-10 in yards/touch and breakaway run rate. Also, out of all year-two RBs, he finished behind only Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs in targets/game.

Chase Brown (ADP: RB36, Opportunity Score: 32.4, Projected PPG: 9.5)

I wasn’t initially sold on Chase Brown. Sorry to all my fellow Illini! But after doing more research for this post, I’m starting to change my mind. He checks every single dead zone rule.

• Year-two back? Check

• Ambiguous backfield? Good offense? Check

• High opportunity score? Check

• No rookie QB? Check

Ideally, you would like to see more than 46 total touches. But did he make the most of those opportunities? Absolutely!

Zach Charbonnet (ADP: RB42, Opportunity Score: 39.5, Projected PPG: 9.8)

It’s easy to forget how good of a prospect Zach Charbonnet was because he got stuck in an bad situation for projected volume. He had similar draft capital to Jonathon Brooks, and was arguably as good of a prospect. But Brooks is coming off boards around RB24 while Charbonnet is down at RB42. It’s also important to keep in mind this an entirely refreshed coaching staff so we have no idea how they will decide to divide the work, something that could benefit Charbonnet. Besides rule #2 (ambiguous backfield), the former UCLA man checks every other box while also having the highest opportunity score on this list.

Rico Dowdle (ADP: RB43, Opportunity Score: 25.9, Projected PPG: 8.1)

Rico Dowdle and the previous RB just discussed, Zach Charbonnet, are back-to-back in ADP, but I like Charbonnet way more. If you consider RB36 the end of the dead zone then we’re technically past it at this point, but Dowdle profiles as the typical dead zone bust. He only meets rules #2 and #4. He’s also been in the league since 2020 and has never tallied more than 5.7 PPG, so if he is an above average running back, you’d think we’d have seen it by now.

Kendre Miller (ADP: RB44, Opportunity Score: 23.7, Projected PPG: 7.4)

We never really got to see Kendre Miller’s full potential because he spent most of last season injured. He had a knee injury in college which kept him out of offseason activities, then had an ankle injury in-season which limited his opportunity. In all, there were just seven games where Miller was involved. However, in the two games where he saw more than 10 carries he averaged 13.9 PPR points. The rules would tell us to avoid Miller, but he may be available on waivers to start the season so you can keep him on your shortlist and hope to beat other managers to the punch if he does breakout.

Ty Chandler (ADP: RB46, Opportunity Score: 25.4, Projected PPG: 9.8)

I’m glad Ty Chandler was mentioned in the question because his name hasn’t been tossed around much in the fantasy space and I feel like he’s being slept on. His projected PPG of 9.8 suggests he’s being mispriced; at least Mike Clay agrees with me. Like Miller, the rules do suggest avoiding Ty Chandler. He has a low opportunity score and he’s in his third year. But I’m playing the injury contingency upside here. Aaron Jones is on the older side at age 29 and only played 11 games last year which could spell more opportunity for Chandler. Approach with caution, although he won’t cost much to acquire so you could easily do worse with a late-round pick.

Jaleel McLaughlin (ADP: RB52, Opportunity Score: 35.7, Projected PPG: 8.1)

What are we doing with Jaleel McLaughlin… RB52?! There’s a good chance he goes undrafted in your league depending on how many players you roster, but this is the type of pick I love in the late rounds! He will be playing with a rookie QB, but that rule mostly applies to Javonte Williams. Otherwise, he fits the bill for year-two back with good opportunity score. If Samaje Perine gets cut as the Broncos try to manage the budget from Russell Wilson’s contract, McLauglin can step into the Alvin Kamara role in this Sean Payton offense.

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This piece was specifically intended to answer the question about breakout candidates, but like I said, there’s enough discussion around the RB dead zone that I didn’t want to squeeze in today’s newsletter and fail to address the question. So more to come!

Let me know if you all have any more questions, though. I learned a ton doing research for these players, and the summer is the perfect time to dive into some of these topics. I have some other ideas in mind for other newsletters I’ll get to before the start of the season, but I’m open to going any route.